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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.82+4.84vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.62+4.38vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32+4.54vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.62+2.61vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.07+3.51vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.13+2.25vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.09+1.29vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.54-4.10vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.45-1.94vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.12-1.59vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University0.35+2.15vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont1.08-0.21vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College2.45-5.56vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.39-6.68vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University1.74-5.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.84Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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6.38Stanford University2.620.1%1st Place
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7.54Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.1%1st Place
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6.61Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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8.51University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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8.25Roger Williams University2.130.0%1st Place
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8.29Old Dominion University2.090.1%1st Place
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3.9Harvard University3.540.2%1st Place
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7.06Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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8.41Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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13.15Northwestern University0.350.0%1st Place
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11.79University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
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7.44Connecticut College2.450.1%1st Place
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7.32Yale University2.390.1%1st Place
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9.53Salve Regina University1.740.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Michels | 10.9% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Stephanie Houck | 7.8% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Maks Groom | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Trevor Davis | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Ben Rosenberg | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 3.2% |
| Riley Read | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 1.7% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 6.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 2.6% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 21.1% | 18.2% | 14.5% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Will Priebe | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 3.0% |
| Nikolas Chambers | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 15.7% | 53.7% |
| Ryan Potter | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 23.2% | 22.6% |
| CJ Mckenna | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% |
| Nathan Sih | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 0.8% |
| Nils Tullberg | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 6.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.