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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+6.86vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77+7.54vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.02+5.20vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University1.97+5.64vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.68+1.75vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.38+2.41vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.22+0.70vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.78+0.24vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.38-1.53vs Predicted
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10Yale University2.85-4.20vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.18-6.51vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont1.05+0.60vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.07-0.78vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09-1.61vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College1.20-3.60vs Predicted
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16Brown University2.22-6.80vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.14-5.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.86Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.9%1st Place
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9.54Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.774.2%1st Place
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8.2Boston College2.025.5%1st Place
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9.64Roger Williams University1.973.6%1st Place
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6.75Roger Williams University2.688.1%1st Place
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8.41Bowdoin College2.385.9%1st Place
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7.7Tufts University2.227.4%1st Place
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8.24University of Rhode Island2.784.9%1st Place
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7.47Dartmouth College2.388.2%1st Place
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5.8Yale University2.8511.8%1st Place
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4.49Harvard University3.1817.8%1st Place
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12.6University of Vermont1.052.0%1st Place
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12.22Northeastern University1.072.2%1st Place
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12.39U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.092.2%1st Place
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11.4Connecticut College1.202.5%1st Place
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9.2Brown University2.224.8%1st Place
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11.07Boston University1.143.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bruce | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 3.5% |
| Jack Redmond | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.7% |
| Lucy Meagher | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 4.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| William Michels | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Stephan Baker | 11.8% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 17.8% | 16.4% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 14.2% | 22.4% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 14.5% | 18.5% |
| Jack Derry | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 14.1% | 19.7% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 12.0% |
| Mason Stang | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.6% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 9.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.