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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.42+4.17vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.09+6.20vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.06+4.56vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58+5.24vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.87+6.51vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.48+0.04vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45+2.08vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.39-1.19vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island1.42+0.57vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+1.32vs Predicted
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11Brown University1.74-2.01vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.39-2.68vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.58-6.67vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University1.43-3.17vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.59-3.30vs Predicted
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16Tufts University1.67-6.69vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College0.38-3.74vs Predicted
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18University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.97-1.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.17Yale University2.4213.6%1st Place
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8.2Roger Williams University2.096.2%1st Place
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7.56Bowdoin College2.067.0%1st Place
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9.24Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.585.1%1st Place
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11.51University of Vermont0.873.0%1st Place
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6.04Harvard University2.4811.3%1st Place
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9.08Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.455.2%1st Place
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6.81Dartmouth College2.398.7%1st Place
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9.57University of Rhode Island1.424.5%1st Place
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11.32U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.402.9%1st Place
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8.99Brown University1.745.9%1st Place
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9.32Boston University1.394.8%1st Place
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6.33Boston College2.5810.7%1st Place
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10.83Roger Williams University1.432.5%1st Place
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11.7Northeastern University1.592.2%1st Place
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9.31Tufts University1.674.0%1st Place
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13.26Connecticut College0.382.1%1st Place
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16.76University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.970.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 13.6% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Robert Ulmer | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 0.8% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 3.5% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 11.3% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 0.9% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 3.1% |
| Cam Spriggs | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 0.6% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 0.6% |
| Peter Busch | 10.7% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jed Lory | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 2.1% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 4.5% |
| John Eastman | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| Liam Gronda | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 12.9% | 22.5% | 10.9% |
| Ian McCaffrey | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 10.4% | 70.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.