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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.48+5.03vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.42+2.93vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.39+3.76vs Predicted
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4Brown University1.74+5.07vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.09+3.11vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+5.30vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.06+0.58vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.58-1.55vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58+0.27vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45-0.85vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.59+0.58vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.67-2.71vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University1.43-2.33vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College0.38-0.61vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island1.42-5.27vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.87-4.39vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.39-7.65vs Predicted
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18University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.97-1.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.03Harvard University2.4811.2%1st Place
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4.93Yale University2.4214.8%1st Place
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6.76Dartmouth College2.399.2%1st Place
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9.07Brown University1.744.9%1st Place
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8.11Roger Williams University2.097.5%1st Place
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11.3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.402.6%1st Place
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7.58Bowdoin College2.067.0%1st Place
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6.45Boston College2.589.8%1st Place
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9.27Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.584.3%1st Place
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9.15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.454.2%1st Place
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11.58Northeastern University1.593.0%1st Place
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9.29Tufts University1.674.9%1st Place
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10.67Roger Williams University1.433.1%1st Place
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13.39Connecticut College0.381.2%1st Place
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9.73University of Rhode Island1.424.3%1st Place
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11.61University of Vermont0.872.7%1st Place
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9.35Boston University1.395.0%1st Place
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16.72University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.970.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mitchell Callahan | 11.2% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
Carmen Cowles | 14.8% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Ryan Satterberg | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
Cam Spriggs | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
Oliver Stokke | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
Bradley Whiteway | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 3.7% |
Sam Bonauto | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
Peter Busch | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Robert Ulmer | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
Julius Heitkoetter | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 0.7% |
Adrian Winkelman | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 3.6% |
John Eastman | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 0.9% |
Jed Lory | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 1.8% |
Liam Gronda | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 23.4% | 11.2% |
Tyler Nash | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 0.7% |
Christian Cushman | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 3.6% |
Noah Robitshek | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 0.5% |
Ian McCaffrey | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 8.6% | 71.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.