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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College2.35+4.93vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+3.18vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99+4.32vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76+7.60vs Predicted
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5Princeton University2.35+1.14vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.81+2.06vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+0.23vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont0.90+2.92vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.18-2.35vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin1.75-1.79vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan0.52+1.13vs Predicted
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12Washington College2.11-5.06vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-3.23vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.54-8.59vs Predicted
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15Cornell University0.69-3.18vs Predicted
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16Cornell University0.38-3.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.93SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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5.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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7.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
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11.6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
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6.14Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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8.06Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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7.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
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10.92University of Vermont0.900.0%1st Place
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6.65University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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8.21University of Wisconsin1.750.1%1st Place
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12.13University of Michigan0.520.0%1st Place
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6.94Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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9.77Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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5.41Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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11.82Cornell University0.690.0%1st Place
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12.69Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Barnes | 10.2% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Will Murray | 14.0% | 13.7% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Patrick Modin | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 14.4% | 16.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 5.0% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| Michael Burns | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Luke Quine | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 9.3% |
| Torrey Chisari | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Reed Weston | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Isabel Dziuba | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 13.9% | 15.4% | 22.5% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 8.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Heather Kerns | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% |
| Lilly Myers | 11.5% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Ben Rizika | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 17.0% | 16.1% |
| Aidan Lane | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 14.0% | 17.5% | 26.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.