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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+4.08vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+7.74vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.54+2.49vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College2.35+2.19vs Predicted
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5University of Michigan0.52+7.26vs Predicted
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6University of Wisconsin1.75+2.20vs Predicted
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7Princeton University2.35-0.80vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.18-1.43vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont0.90+1.98vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.81-1.99vs Predicted
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11Cornell University0.69+0.68vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99-4.65vs Predicted
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13Cornell University0.38-0.43vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-7.02vs Predicted
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15Washington College2.11-7.91vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76-4.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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9.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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5.49Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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6.19SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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12.26University of Michigan0.520.0%1st Place
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8.2University of Wisconsin1.750.1%1st Place
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6.2Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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6.57University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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10.98University of Vermont0.900.0%1st Place
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8.01Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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11.68Cornell University0.690.0%1st Place
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7.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
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12.57Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
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6.98U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
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7.09Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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11.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 13.2% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Heather Kerns | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% |
| Lilly Myers | 12.5% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 9.5% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Isabel Dziuba | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 18.5% | 22.0% |
| Reed Weston | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| Connor Mraz | 10.5% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Torrey Chisari | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Luke Quine | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 13.4% | 11.3% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Ben Rizika | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 16.8% | 16.6% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Aidan Lane | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 10.4% | 13.7% | 16.6% | 25.3% |
| Michael Burns | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Modin | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 14.9% | 13.4% | 14.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.