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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+4.08vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.35+4.04vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.18+3.63vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99+3.41vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.54+0.48vs Predicted
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6Washington College2.11+1.02vs Predicted
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7Princeton University2.35-0.83vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+1.69vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.81-1.13vs Predicted
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10Cornell University0.38+2.67vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin1.75-2.86vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-4.88vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan0.52-0.81vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76-2.57vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.90-3.82vs Predicted
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16Cornell University0.69-4.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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6.04SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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6.63University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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7.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
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5.48Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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7.02Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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6.17Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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9.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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7.87Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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12.67Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
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8.14University of Wisconsin1.750.1%1st Place
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7.12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
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12.19University of Michigan0.520.0%1st Place
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11.43U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
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11.18University of Vermont0.900.0%1st Place
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11.87Cornell University0.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 13.5% | 13.9% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 10.2% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Torrey Chisari | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 5.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Lilly Myers | 11.6% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Connor Mraz | 11.3% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 4.1% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| Aidan Lane | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 20.8% | 26.3% |
| Reed Weston | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Michael Burns | 7.6% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| Isabel Dziuba | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 17.4% | 21.3% |
| Patrick Modin | 2.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 14.9% |
| Luke Quine | 2.7% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 13.4% | 10.9% |
| Ben Rizika | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 14.3% | 14.9% | 17.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.