← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Dartmouth College2.39+5.68vs Predicted
-
2Boston University1.39+7.27vs Predicted
-
3Northeastern University1.59+8.69vs Predicted
-
4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45+5.39vs Predicted
-
5Boston College2.58+1.48vs Predicted
-
6Yale University2.42-1.01vs Predicted
-
7Tufts University1.67+2.27vs Predicted
-
8Roger Williams University2.09-0.05vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+2.48vs Predicted
-
10Brown University1.74-1.12vs Predicted
-
11University of Rhode Island1.42-1.35vs Predicted
-
12Roger Williams University1.43-1.38vs Predicted
-
13Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58-3.63vs Predicted
-
14University of Vermont0.87-2.38vs Predicted
-
15Bowdoin College2.06-7.43vs Predicted
-
16Harvard University2.48-10.00vs Predicted
-
17Connecticut College0.38-3.79vs Predicted
-
18University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.97-1.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.68Dartmouth College2.398.8%1st Place
-
9.27Boston University1.394.4%1st Place
-
11.69Northeastern University1.593.2%1st Place
-
9.39Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.455.2%1st Place
-
6.48Boston College2.589.1%1st Place
-
4.99Yale University2.4215.2%1st Place
-
9.27Tufts University1.675.1%1st Place
-
7.95Roger Williams University2.097.0%1st Place
-
11.48U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.402.4%1st Place
-
8.88Brown University1.745.1%1st Place
-
9.65University of Rhode Island1.424.2%1st Place
-
10.62Roger Williams University1.433.4%1st Place
-
9.37Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.584.5%1st Place
-
11.62University of Vermont0.872.4%1st Place
-
7.57Bowdoin College2.066.9%1st Place
-
6.0Harvard University2.4811.5%1st Place
-
13.21Connecticut College0.381.4%1st Place
-
16.88University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.970.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Satterberg | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 0.5% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 4.1% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 0.8% |
| Peter Busch | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Carmen Cowles | 15.2% | 14.3% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| Oliver Stokke | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 3.1% |
| Cam Spriggs | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 0.8% |
| Jed Lory | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 2.0% |
| Robert Ulmer | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 0.4% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 3.6% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 11.5% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Liam Gronda | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 22.3% | 11.4% |
| Ian McCaffrey | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 9.6% | 71.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.