← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Princeton University2.35+4.94vs Predicted
-
2University of Pennsylvania2.18+4.60vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+4.08vs Predicted
-
4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+6.04vs Predicted
-
5SUNY Maritime College2.35+1.09vs Predicted
-
6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99+1.40vs Predicted
-
7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-1.71vs Predicted
-
8University of Wisconsin1.75+0.04vs Predicted
-
9Cornell University1.81-1.15vs Predicted
-
10Washington College2.11-3.02vs Predicted
-
11Cornell University0.38+1.54vs Predicted
-
12Cornell University2.54-6.47vs Predicted
-
13Cornell University0.69-1.29vs Predicted
-
14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76-2.55vs Predicted
-
15University of Vermont0.90-3.84vs Predicted
-
16University of Michigan0.52-3.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.94Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
-
6.6University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
-
7.08U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
-
10.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
-
6.09SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
-
7.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
-
5.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
-
8.04University of Wisconsin1.750.1%1st Place
-
7.85Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
-
6.98Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
-
12.54Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
-
5.53Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
-
11.71Cornell University0.690.0%1st Place
-
11.45U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
-
11.16University of Vermont0.900.0%1st Place
-
12.3University of Michigan0.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Mraz | 10.6% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Torrey Chisari | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Michael Burns | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Heather Kerns | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 5.6% |
| Spencer Barnes | 9.1% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Will Murray | 13.6% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Reed Weston | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Aidan Lane | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 12.5% | 16.3% | 27.6% |
| Lilly Myers | 12.4% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ben Rizika | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 15.0% | 16.1% |
| Patrick Modin | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 13.9% | 13.7% |
| Luke Quine | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 15.0% | 10.5% |
| Isabel Dziuba | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 16.9% | 21.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.