← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
18.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Pennsylvania2.18+5.54vs Predicted
-
2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+3.19vs Predicted
-
3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+6.84vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76+7.61vs Predicted
-
5Princeton University2.35+1.16vs Predicted
-
6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99+1.38vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+0.21vs Predicted
-
8SUNY Maritime College2.35-2.06vs Predicted
-
9Cornell University0.38+3.53vs Predicted
-
10Cornell University2.54-4.45vs Predicted
-
11University of Wisconsin1.75-2.89vs Predicted
-
12Washington College2.11-5.08vs Predicted
-
13Cornell University1.81-5.11vs Predicted
-
14Cornell University0.69-2.37vs Predicted
-
15University of Vermont0.90-3.83vs Predicted
-
16University of Michigan0.52-3.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.54University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
-
5.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
-
9.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
-
11.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
-
6.16Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
-
7.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
-
7.21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
-
5.94SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
-
12.53Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
-
5.55Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
-
8.11University of Wisconsin1.750.1%1st Place
-
6.92Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
-
7.89Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
-
11.63Cornell University0.690.0%1st Place
-
11.17University of Vermont0.900.0%1st Place
-
12.31University of Michigan0.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Chisari | 8.2% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Will Murray | 14.7% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| Patrick Modin | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 16.0% | 16.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 8.7% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Michael Burns | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Spencer Barnes | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Lane | 1.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 18.6% | 24.7% |
| Lilly Myers | 11.8% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Reed Weston | 7.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 0.8% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Ben Rizika | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 16.5% |
| Luke Quine | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 16.1% | 10.6% |
| Isabel Dziuba | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 12.1% | 13.0% | 15.5% | 22.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.