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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Princeton University2.35+4.90vs Predicted
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2Washington College2.11+4.74vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+1.99vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+3.14vs Predicted
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5University of Wisconsin1.75+3.00vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.35+0.06vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.18-0.37vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.54-2.73vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.81-1.25vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-0.31vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan-1.20+3.92vs Predicted
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12Cornell University0.38+0.21vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99-5.89vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.90-3.31vs Predicted
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15Cornell University0.69-3.43vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76-4.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.9Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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6.74Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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4.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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7.14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
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8.0University of Wisconsin1.750.1%1st Place
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6.06SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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6.63University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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5.27Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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7.75Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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9.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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14.92University of Michigan-1.200.0%1st Place
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12.21Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
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7.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
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10.69University of Vermont0.900.0%1st Place
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11.57Cornell University0.690.0%1st Place
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11.32U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Mraz | 9.8% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Will Murray | 14.6% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Burns | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Reed Weston | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Spencer Barnes | 9.2% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 9.3% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lilly Myers | 13.5% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Heather Kerns | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 6.3% | 1.6% |
| Anna Brieden | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 10.5% | 71.6% |
| Aidan Lane | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 13.8% | 27.3% | 10.6% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Luke Quine | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 13.0% | 13.6% | 12.4% | 3.7% |
| Ben Rizika | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 17.8% | 18.6% | 5.8% |
| Patrick Modin | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 15.6% | 17.0% | 5.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.