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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College2.35+4.83vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+3.09vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99+4.18vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+3.16vs Predicted
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5Washington College2.11+1.84vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.54-0.49vs Predicted
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7Cornell University0.69+4.42vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.18-1.58vs Predicted
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9Princeton University2.35-3.07vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.81-2.13vs Predicted
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11Cornell University0.38+1.11vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin1.75-4.00vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.90-2.26vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76-2.91vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan-1.20+0.08vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-6.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.83SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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5.09Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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7.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
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7.16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
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6.84Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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5.51Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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11.42Cornell University0.690.0%1st Place
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6.42University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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5.93Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.87Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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12.11Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
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8.0University of Wisconsin1.750.1%1st Place
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10.74University of Vermont0.900.0%1st Place
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11.09U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
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15.08University of Michigan-1.200.0%1st Place
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9.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Barnes | 10.4% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Will Murray | 13.6% | 15.2% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 8.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Burns | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Lilly Myers | 11.0% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ben Rizika | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 12.9% | 17.8% | 18.6% | 5.5% |
| Torrey Chisari | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 10.1% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Aidan Lane | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 15.2% | 27.6% | 8.5% |
| Reed Weston | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 0.3% |
| Luke Quine | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 14.2% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 4.1% |
| Patrick Modin | 2.5% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 14.7% | 15.3% | 4.9% |
| Anna Brieden | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 10.2% | 74.6% |
| Heather Kerns | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 6.5% | 1.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.