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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.18+5.43vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+4.94vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+2.04vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99+3.33vs Predicted
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5Washington College2.11+1.79vs Predicted
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6University of Wisconsin1.75+2.08vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.35-0.94vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.54-2.76vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.81-1.31vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-0.31vs Predicted
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11Princeton University2.35-5.00vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76-0.89vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.90-2.27vs Predicted
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14Cornell University0.38-1.85vs Predicted
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15Cornell University0.69-3.45vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan-1.20-0.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.43University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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6.94U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
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5.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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7.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
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6.79Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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8.08University of Wisconsin1.750.1%1st Place
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6.06SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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5.24Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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7.69Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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9.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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6.0Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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11.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
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10.73University of Vermont0.900.0%1st Place
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12.15Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
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11.55Cornell University0.690.0%1st Place
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15.17University of Michigan-1.200.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Chisari | 7.5% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Michael Burns | 7.1% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Will Murray | 14.4% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 5.3% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Reed Weston | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 0.6% |
| Spencer Barnes | 11.0% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lilly Myers | 13.2% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 5.7% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| Heather Kerns | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 5.5% | 2.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 11.3% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Modin | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 15.4% | 15.9% | 5.1% |
| Luke Quine | 2.1% | 1.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 3.5% |
| Aidan Lane | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 11.8% | 15.1% | 26.2% | 9.0% |
| Ben Rizika | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 13.4% | 17.7% | 17.8% | 6.1% |
| Anna Brieden | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 11.4% | 73.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.