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📊 Prediction Accuracy
18.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.54+4.38vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99+5.25vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.18+3.66vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+6.00vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+0.24vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont0.90+5.14vs Predicted
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7Cornell University0.69+4.74vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin1.75+0.08vs Predicted
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9Princeton University2.35-2.92vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.35-3.84vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-3.89vs Predicted
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12Cornell University0.38+0.51vs Predicted
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13Washington College2.11-6.15vs Predicted
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14Cornell University1.81-6.17vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76-3.36vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan0.52-3.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.38Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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7.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
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6.66University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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10.0Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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5.24Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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11.14University of Vermont0.900.0%1st Place
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11.74Cornell University0.690.0%1st Place
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8.08University of Wisconsin1.750.1%1st Place
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6.08Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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6.16SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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7.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
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12.51Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
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6.85Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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7.83Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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11.64U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
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12.34University of Michigan0.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilly Myers | 12.3% | 13.6% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 0.3% |
| Torrey Chisari | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Heather Kerns | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 6.1% |
| Will Murray | 12.5% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Quine | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 12.5% |
| Ben Rizika | 2.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 14.9% | 18.0% |
| Reed Weston | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 9.6% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Michael Burns | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Aidan Lane | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 16.1% | 26.6% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 7.3% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Patrick Modin | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 17.8% | 12.9% |
| Isabel Dziuba | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 15.4% | 16.7% | 20.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.