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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Wisconsin1.75+7.04vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+7.75vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.54+2.51vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+1.29vs Predicted
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5Princeton University2.35+1.14vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76+5.58vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.35-0.77vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-0.98vs Predicted
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9Cornell University0.69+2.67vs Predicted
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10Cornell University0.38+2.68vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.90-0.01vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.81-3.97vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.18-6.37vs Predicted
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14Washington College2.11-7.23vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99-7.62vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan0.52-3.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.04University of Wisconsin1.750.0%1st Place
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9.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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5.51Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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5.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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6.14Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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11.58U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
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6.23SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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7.02U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
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11.67Cornell University0.690.0%1st Place
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12.68Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
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10.99University of Vermont0.900.0%1st Place
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8.03Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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6.63University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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6.77Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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7.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
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12.31University of Michigan0.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reed Weston | 4.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% |
| Heather Kerns | 2.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 1.9% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 4.3% |
| Lilly Myers | 12.1% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Will Murray | 13.3% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Connor Mraz | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Modin | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 14.1% | 15.8% |
| Spencer Barnes | 11.4% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Michael Burns | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Ben Rizika | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 14.3% | 16.1% |
| Aidan Lane | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 18.3% | 26.0% |
| Luke Quine | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 15.0% | 10.5% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% |
| Torrey Chisari | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 7.5% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Isabel Dziuba | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 17.7% | 21.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.