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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.54+4.38vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99+5.23vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin1.75+5.13vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.18+2.76vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.90+6.13vs Predicted
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6Cornell University0.38+6.64vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-1.74vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.81-0.17vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-1.96vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.35-3.85vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-1.12vs Predicted
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12Washington College2.11-5.05vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76-1.49vs Predicted
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14Cornell University0.69-2.35vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan0.52-2.71vs Predicted
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16Princeton University2.35-9.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.38Cornell University2.540.1%1st Place
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7.23Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
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8.13University of Wisconsin1.750.1%1st Place
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6.76University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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11.13University of Vermont0.900.0%1st Place
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12.64Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
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5.26Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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7.83Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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7.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
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6.15SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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9.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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6.95Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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11.51U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
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11.65Cornell University0.690.0%1st Place
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12.29University of Michigan0.520.0%1st Place
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6.17Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilly Myers | 12.3% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Reed Weston | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Torrey Chisari | 7.2% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Luke Quine | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 13.7% | 14.1% | 10.3% |
| Aidan Lane | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 17.9% | 26.9% |
| Will Murray | 14.0% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 0.3% |
| Michael Burns | 7.0% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Spencer Barnes | 9.3% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Heather Kerns | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 5.6% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Patrick Modin | 2.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 13.7% | 14.7% |
| Ben Rizika | 2.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 13.3% | 14.5% | 16.1% |
| Isabel Dziuba | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 17.5% | 21.9% |
| Connor Mraz | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.