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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.19+6.82vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.16+5.99vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82+2.82vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+3.78vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.29-0.52vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.16+2.16vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.27+0.81vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.93-2.57vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin0.57+1.01vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.24-5.37vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.26-3.24vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.35+0.74vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.09-1.43vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont-0.77-0.32vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.05-6.45vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan0.05-4.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.82Cornell University1.190.0%1st Place
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7.99University of Pennsylvania1.160.0%1st Place
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5.82U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.1%1st Place
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7.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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4.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.290.2%1st Place
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8.16SUNY Maritime College1.160.0%1st Place
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7.81Cornell University1.270.1%1st Place
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5.43Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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10.01University of Wisconsin0.570.0%1st Place
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4.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.240.1%1st Place
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7.76U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.260.1%1st Place
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12.74Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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11.57Washington College0.090.0%1st Place
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13.68University of Vermont-0.770.0%1st Place
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8.55Cornell University1.050.1%1st Place
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11.78University of Michigan0.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Rizika | 4.6% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Ella Marsden | 4.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| William Weinbecker | 11.5% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Richard Gleason | 15.2% | 16.6% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gannon Troutman | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| J.J. Smith | 12.1% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| William Davis | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 4.3% |
| Will Foox | 14.7% | 13.8% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Dax Thompson | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 13.3% | 21.7% | 23.7% |
| Max Shapiro | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 15.4% | 12.5% |
| Liam Harkins | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 19.7% | 40.8% |
| Jack Merrill | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Samuel Stephens | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 15.2% | 15.8% | 12.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.