← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82+4.74vs Predicted
-
2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.29+2.48vs Predicted
-
3SUNY Maritime College1.16+5.04vs Predicted
-
4University of Pennsylvania1.16+4.19vs Predicted
-
5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.24-0.33vs Predicted
-
6Cornell University1.27+1.77vs Predicted
-
7Cornell University1.93-1.41vs Predicted
-
8University of Wisconsin0.57+1.96vs Predicted
-
9University of Michigan0.05+2.58vs Predicted
-
10Cornell University1.19-2.00vs Predicted
-
11Cornell University1.05-2.60vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.26-4.22vs Predicted
-
13Princeton University-0.35-0.21vs Predicted
-
14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-6.48vs Predicted
-
15University of Vermont-0.77-1.18vs Predicted
-
16Washington College0.09-4.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.74U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.1%1st Place
-
4.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.290.2%1st Place
-
8.04SUNY Maritime College1.160.0%1st Place
-
8.19University of Pennsylvania1.160.0%1st Place
-
4.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.240.2%1st Place
-
7.77Cornell University1.270.0%1st Place
-
5.59Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
-
9.96University of Wisconsin0.570.0%1st Place
-
11.58University of Michigan0.050.0%1st Place
-
8.0Cornell University1.190.0%1st Place
-
8.4Cornell University1.050.1%1st Place
-
7.78U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.260.1%1st Place
-
12.79Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
-
7.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
-
13.82University of Vermont-0.770.0%1st Place
-
11.67Washington College0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Weinbecker | 10.3% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Richard Gleason | 17.5% | 15.0% | 13.9% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gannon Troutman | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% |
| Ella Marsden | 4.1% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Will Foox | 15.1% | 14.0% | 14.2% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| J.J. Smith | 12.3% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| William Davis | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 3.4% |
| Samuel Stephens | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 15.4% | 16.0% | 12.0% |
| Seth Rizika | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Jack Merrill | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| Dax Thompson | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 22.4% | 23.2% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Liam Harkins | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 11.5% | 16.7% | 44.7% |
| Max Shapiro | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 15.5% | 16.1% | 10.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.