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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College1.16+6.95vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82+3.82vs Predicted
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3Washington College0.09+8.56vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.29+0.64vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.19+2.97vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.24-1.27vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.27+0.84vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-0.48vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont-0.77+4.69vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.93-4.45vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.05-2.60vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.26-4.29vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin0.57-2.96vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.16-6.08vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan0.05-3.22vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.35-3.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.95SUNY Maritime College1.160.0%1st Place
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5.82U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.1%1st Place
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11.56Washington College0.090.0%1st Place
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4.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.290.2%1st Place
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7.97Cornell University1.190.0%1st Place
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4.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.240.1%1st Place
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7.84Cornell University1.270.1%1st Place
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7.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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13.69University of Vermont-0.770.0%1st Place
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5.55Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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8.4Cornell University1.050.1%1st Place
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7.71U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.260.1%1st Place
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10.04University of Wisconsin0.570.0%1st Place
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7.92University of Pennsylvania1.160.1%1st Place
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11.78University of Michigan0.050.0%1st Place
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12.88Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gannon Troutman | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| William Weinbecker | 11.0% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Max Shapiro | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 15.3% | 14.2% | 12.4% |
| Richard Gleason | 16.0% | 14.9% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Seth Rizika | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Will Foox | 14.2% | 14.4% | 14.5% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Liam Harkins | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 10.5% | 18.2% | 42.5% |
| J.J. Smith | 11.6% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jack Merrill | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 0.6% |
| Dax Thompson | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| William Davis | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 4.5% |
| Ella Marsden | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Samuel Stephens | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 14.6% | 17.5% | 12.9% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 23.0% | 23.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.