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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82+4.76vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.27+5.64vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College1.16+5.05vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.93+1.62vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.24-0.37vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.29-1.43vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.05+1.50vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin0.57+1.96vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.26-1.31vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.19-1.96vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-3.43vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.16-3.95vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.35-0.21vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan0.05-2.37vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont-0.77-1.15vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.09-4.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.76U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.1%1st Place
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7.64Cornell University1.270.1%1st Place
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8.05SUNY Maritime College1.160.1%1st Place
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5.62Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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4.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.240.2%1st Place
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4.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.290.2%1st Place
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8.5Cornell University1.050.1%1st Place
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9.96University of Wisconsin0.570.0%1st Place
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7.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.260.1%1st Place
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8.04Cornell University1.190.1%1st Place
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7.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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8.05University of Pennsylvania1.160.1%1st Place
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12.79Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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11.63University of Michigan0.050.0%1st Place
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13.85University of Vermont-0.770.0%1st Place
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11.65Washington College0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Weinbecker | 10.0% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| Gannon Troutman | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 0.6% |
| J.J. Smith | 10.4% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Will Foox | 15.3% | 15.2% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Richard Gleason | 15.6% | 13.5% | 15.0% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Merrill | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| William Davis | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 3.2% |
| Dax Thompson | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Seth Rizika | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Ella Marsden | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 13.1% | 22.2% | 23.3% |
| Samuel Stephens | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 14.5% | 14.1% | 13.1% |
| Liam Harkins | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 6.4% | 11.0% | 18.5% | 44.2% |
| Max Shapiro | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 14.5% | 16.3% | 11.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.