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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82+4.75vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.29+2.48vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin0.57+7.07vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.24+0.77vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.16+3.07vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.19+2.03vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.16+1.13vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.26-0.46vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-1.42vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.93-4.45vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.05-2.59vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.27-4.32vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.09-1.43vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.35-1.24vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan0.05-3.20vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont-0.77-2.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.1%1st Place
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4.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.290.2%1st Place
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10.07University of Wisconsin0.570.0%1st Place
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4.77Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.240.1%1st Place
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8.07SUNY Maritime College1.160.0%1st Place
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8.03Cornell University1.190.0%1st Place
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8.13University of Pennsylvania1.160.1%1st Place
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7.54U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.260.1%1st Place
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7.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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5.55Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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8.41Cornell University1.050.1%1st Place
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7.68Cornell University1.270.1%1st Place
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11.57Washington College0.090.0%1st Place
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12.76Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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11.8University of Michigan0.050.0%1st Place
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13.8University of Vermont-0.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Weinbecker | 9.7% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Richard Gleason | 17.9% | 15.1% | 13.4% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Davis | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 3.5% |
| Will Foox | 14.7% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Gannon Troutman | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Seth Rizika | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 0.5% |
| Ella Marsden | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Dax Thompson | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| J.J. Smith | 10.7% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Merrill | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.0% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Max Shapiro | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 13.9% | 15.5% | 11.2% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 10.1% | 13.7% | 19.4% | 24.2% |
| Samuel Stephens | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 14.9% | 16.3% | 13.6% |
| Liam Harkins | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 10.3% | 19.6% | 42.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.