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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Wisconsin0.57+8.89vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.27+5.63vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+4.68vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.26+3.87vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.93+0.54vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.16+2.18vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-1.00vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.29-3.64vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.24-4.43vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.19-2.00vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.09+0.44vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College1.16-3.90vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.05-4.59vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.35-1.30vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan0.05-3.19vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont-0.77-2.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.89University of Wisconsin0.570.0%1st Place
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7.63Cornell University1.270.1%1st Place
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7.68Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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7.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.260.0%1st Place
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5.54Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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8.18University of Pennsylvania1.160.0%1st Place
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6.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.1%1st Place
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4.36Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.290.2%1st Place
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4.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.240.2%1st Place
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8.0Cornell University1.190.1%1st Place
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11.44Washington College0.090.0%1st Place
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8.1SUNY Maritime College1.160.1%1st Place
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8.41Cornell University1.050.0%1st Place
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12.7Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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11.81University of Michigan0.050.0%1st Place
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13.85University of Vermont-0.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Davis | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 3.2% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Dax Thompson | 4.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 0.2% |
| J.J. Smith | 11.0% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ella Marsden | 4.8% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| William Weinbecker | 10.3% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Richard Gleason | 18.9% | 14.2% | 14.1% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Foox | 15.7% | 16.1% | 13.7% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Seth Rizika | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Max Shapiro | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 14.2% | 16.6% | 11.4% |
| Gannon Troutman | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Jack Merrill | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.0% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 13.9% | 18.0% | 24.7% |
| Samuel Stephens | 2.7% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 15.2% | 16.9% | 12.7% |
| Liam Harkins | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 10.3% | 19.6% | 42.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.