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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.24+3.48vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.29+2.48vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.27+4.56vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.19+4.00vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.16+2.94vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.93-0.48vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-1.12vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.88-2.50vs Predicted
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9Princeton University-0.35+3.54vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.26-2.32vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.05-2.70vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.01-0.34vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin0.57-3.16vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan0.05-2.58vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont-0.77-1.29vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.09-4.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.240.2%1st Place
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4.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.290.2%1st Place
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7.56Cornell University1.270.1%1st Place
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8.0Cornell University1.190.0%1st Place
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7.94SUNY Maritime College1.160.0%1st Place
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5.52Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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5.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.1%1st Place
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5.5University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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12.54Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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7.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.260.1%1st Place
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8.3Cornell University1.050.1%1st Place
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11.66Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.010.0%1st Place
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9.84University of Wisconsin0.570.0%1st Place
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11.42University of Michigan0.050.0%1st Place
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13.71University of Vermont-0.770.0%1st Place
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11.48Washington College0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Foox | 16.2% | 15.0% | 13.7% | 13.4% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Richard Gleason | 16.7% | 15.0% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Seth Rizika | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Gannon Troutman | 4.4% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| J.J. Smith | 10.6% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Weinbecker | 10.6% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 11.6% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 15.6% | 18.1% | 21.1% |
| Dax Thompson | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Jack Merrill | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Payton Kliesch | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 16.9% | 12.2% |
| William Davis | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 3.0% |
| Samuel Stephens | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 14.2% | 12.6% | 11.2% |
| Liam Harkins | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 11.3% | 18.7% | 40.5% |
| Max Shapiro | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 14.0% | 9.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.