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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.24+3.49vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College1.16+5.86vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin0.57+6.96vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.26+3.76vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.93+0.56vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.29-1.45vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.01+4.68vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.27-0.52vs Predicted
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9Princeton University-0.35+3.53vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-4.11vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.05-2.74vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.09-0.65vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.19-5.18vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.88-8.50vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont-0.77-1.32vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan0.05-4.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.240.2%1st Place
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7.86SUNY Maritime College1.160.1%1st Place
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9.96University of Wisconsin0.570.0%1st Place
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7.76U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.260.0%1st Place
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5.56Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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4.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.290.2%1st Place
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11.68Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.010.0%1st Place
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7.48Cornell University1.270.1%1st Place
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12.53Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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5.89U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.1%1st Place
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8.26Cornell University1.050.1%1st Place
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11.35Washington College0.090.0%1st Place
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7.82Cornell University1.190.0%1st Place
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5.5University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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13.68University of Vermont-0.770.0%1st Place
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11.6University of Michigan0.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Foox | 17.2% | 14.6% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gannon Troutman | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| William Davis | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 3.7% |
| Dax Thompson | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| J.J. Smith | 10.1% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Richard Gleason | 15.4% | 15.6% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Payton Kliesch | 1.8% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 13.2% | 15.2% | 14.7% | 12.9% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 14.7% | 17.8% | 20.9% |
| William Weinbecker | 10.0% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jack Merrill | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Max Shapiro | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 13.3% | 15.1% | 10.3% |
| Seth Rizika | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Madeleine Rice | 11.2% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Liam Harkins | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 18.3% | 40.4% |
| Samuel Stephens | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 15.8% | 9.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.