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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.24+3.50vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.19+5.77vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.29+1.48vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82+1.96vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.93+0.51vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.27+1.65vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin0.57+2.93vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.26-0.48vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.88-3.35vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.35+2.68vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan0.05+0.39vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.01-0.33vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.05-4.69vs Predicted
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14Washington College0.09-2.73vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont-0.77-1.35vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.16-7.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.240.2%1st Place
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7.77Cornell University1.190.1%1st Place
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4.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.290.2%1st Place
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5.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.1%1st Place
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5.51Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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7.65Cornell University1.270.1%1st Place
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9.93University of Wisconsin0.570.0%1st Place
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7.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.260.1%1st Place
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5.65University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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12.68Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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11.39University of Michigan0.050.0%1st Place
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11.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.010.0%1st Place
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8.31Cornell University1.050.0%1st Place
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11.27Washington College0.090.0%1st Place
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13.65University of Vermont-0.770.0%1st Place
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8.05SUNY Maritime College1.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Foox | 16.2% | 15.0% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Seth Rizika | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Richard Gleason | 17.7% | 12.3% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Weinbecker | 8.0% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| J.J. Smith | 11.5% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| William Davis | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 3.8% |
| Dax Thompson | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Madeleine Rice | 11.2% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 21.0% | 21.3% |
| Samuel Stephens | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 16.4% | 15.1% | 9.0% |
| Payton Kliesch | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 15.3% | 13.3% |
| Jack Merrill | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Max Shapiro | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 10.0% |
| Liam Harkins | 0.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 18.2% | 39.8% |
| Gannon Troutman | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.