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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+10.48vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.58+4.47vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.42+1.98vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University1.43+6.51vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45+4.08vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.06+1.62vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.48-0.95vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island1.42+1.83vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58+0.31vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.67-0.67vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.87+0.52vs Predicted
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12Brown University1.74-2.90vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.59-1.35vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.39-4.84vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University2.09-7.02vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College0.38-2.58vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College2.39-10.20vs Predicted
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18University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.97-1.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.48U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.402.8%1st Place
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6.47Boston College2.588.4%1st Place
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4.98Yale University2.4215.6%1st Place
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10.51Roger Williams University1.433.1%1st Place
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9.08Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.455.0%1st Place
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7.62Bowdoin College2.068.0%1st Place
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6.05Harvard University2.4811.7%1st Place
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9.83University of Rhode Island1.423.6%1st Place
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9.31Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.584.0%1st Place
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9.33Tufts University1.674.1%1st Place
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11.52University of Vermont0.873.2%1st Place
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9.1Brown University1.745.0%1st Place
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11.65Northeastern University1.592.7%1st Place
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9.16Boston University1.394.7%1st Place
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7.98Roger Williams University2.096.4%1st Place
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13.42Connecticut College0.381.5%1st Place
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6.8Dartmouth College2.3910.1%1st Place
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16.72University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.970.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Whiteway | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 2.9% |
| Peter Busch | 8.4% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Carmen Cowles | 15.6% | 12.7% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jed Lory | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 1.8% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Sam Bonauto | 8.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 11.7% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Nash | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 0.9% |
| Robert Ulmer | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 0.7% |
| John Eastman | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 0.9% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 3.9% |
| Cam Spriggs | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 4.3% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Liam Gronda | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 22.8% | 11.5% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ian McCaffrey | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 10.2% | 70.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.