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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.48+5.05vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.58+4.54vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45+6.20vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.06+3.44vs Predicted
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5Brown University1.74+3.92vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58+3.46vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.42-2.06vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.09+0.04vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.67+0.36vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.42-0.25vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.39-1.64vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.39-5.29vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.59-1.39vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University1.43-3.56vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40-3.74vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.87-4.40vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College0.38-3.47vs Predicted
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18University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.97-1.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.05Harvard University2.4810.2%1st Place
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6.54Boston College2.589.6%1st Place
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9.2Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.454.8%1st Place
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7.44Bowdoin College2.067.8%1st Place
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8.92Brown University1.745.0%1st Place
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9.46Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.584.3%1st Place
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4.94Yale University2.4216.4%1st Place
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8.04Roger Williams University2.096.0%1st Place
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9.36Tufts University1.674.7%1st Place
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9.75University of Rhode Island1.424.3%1st Place
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9.36Boston University1.394.9%1st Place
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6.71Dartmouth College2.398.7%1st Place
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11.61Northeastern University1.592.4%1st Place
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10.44Roger Williams University1.434.0%1st Place
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11.26U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.403.4%1st Place
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11.6University of Vermont0.872.1%1st Place
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13.53Connecticut College0.381.4%1st Place
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16.8University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.970.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Callahan | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 9.6% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Cam Spriggs | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Robert Ulmer | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
| Carmen Cowles | 16.4% | 14.8% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| John Eastman | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 1.1% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 0.9% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 4.5% |
| Jed Lory | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 1.9% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 2.8% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 3.2% |
| Liam Gronda | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 23.4% | 10.3% |
| Ian McCaffrey | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 9.3% | 71.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.