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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.39+5.56vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+9.23vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.58+3.32vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.09+3.95vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.06+2.46vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.42+3.27vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45+2.10vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.67+1.15vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58+0.27vs Predicted
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10Harvard University2.48-4.14vs Predicted
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11Brown University1.74-2.40vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.59-0.61vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.38+0.40vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University1.43-3.48vs Predicted
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15Yale University2.42-10.03vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.87-4.70vs Predicted
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17Boston University0.95-5.04vs Predicted
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18University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.97-1.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.56Dartmouth College2.3910.0%1st Place
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11.23U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.403.0%1st Place
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6.32Boston College2.5810.6%1st Place
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7.95Roger Williams University2.096.8%1st Place
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7.46Bowdoin College2.067.3%1st Place
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9.27University of Rhode Island1.424.2%1st Place
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9.1Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.454.5%1st Place
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9.15Tufts University1.673.9%1st Place
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9.27Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.584.0%1st Place
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5.86Harvard University2.4811.5%1st Place
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8.6Brown University1.745.6%1st Place
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11.39Northeastern University1.592.9%1st Place
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13.4Connecticut College0.381.4%1st Place
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10.52Roger Williams University1.433.0%1st Place
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4.97Yale University2.4215.5%1st Place
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11.3University of Vermont0.872.8%1st Place
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11.96Boston University0.952.8%1st Place
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16.68University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.970.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Satterberg | 10.0% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 3.4% |
| Peter Busch | 10.6% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 0.4% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| John Eastman | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| Robert Ulmer | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 11.5% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cam Spriggs | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 3.6% |
| Liam Gronda | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 15.0% | 21.3% | 10.6% |
| Jed Lory | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 1.5% |
| Carmen Cowles | 15.5% | 14.3% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 3.5% |
| Dylan Balunas | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 5.5% |
| Ian McCaffrey | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 10.3% | 68.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.