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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.30+8.33vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+5.94vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.74+4.54vs Predicted
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4Tulane University2.50+4.20vs Predicted
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5Boston University2.07+5.03vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.76+1.25vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin2.09+3.08vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.33+0.91vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.90+1.81vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+0.55vs Predicted
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11University of Miami0.67+4.18vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.19-2.02vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.05-2.96vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston2.80-7.15vs Predicted
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15Stanford University2.77-7.87vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania2.09-5.89vs Predicted
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17Georgetown University2.54-8.74vs Predicted
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18University of South Florida1.37-5.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.33St. Mary's College of Maryland2.300.1%1st Place
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7.94U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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7.54George Washington University2.740.1%1st Place
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8.2Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
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10.03Boston University2.070.0%1st Place
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7.25U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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10.08University of Wisconsin2.090.0%1st Place
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8.91Roger Williams University2.330.1%1st Place
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10.81Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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10.55U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
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15.18University of Miami0.670.0%1st Place
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9.98SUNY Maritime College2.190.0%1st Place
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10.04Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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6.85College of Charleston2.800.1%1st Place
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7.13Stanford University2.770.1%1st Place
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10.11University of Pennsylvania2.090.0%1st Place
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8.26Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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12.8University of South Florida1.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taft Buckley | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 2.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Michael Ehnot | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Thad Lettsome | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Micky Munns | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 3.9% |
| Gavin McJones | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 3.4% |
| John Walton | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 5.2% |
| Lucas Sawin | 5.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 4.6% |
| Jonathan Gleason | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 13.6% | 47.0% |
| Nick Chisari | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 2.8% |
| John Eastman | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% |
| Brandon Geller | 8.7% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Justin Lim | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Samuel Gavula | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 3.8% |
| Diego Escobar | 7.7% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Humberto Porrata | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 15.5% | 15.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.