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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+9.62vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+6.10vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.77+4.54vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.05+6.33vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.74+2.44vs Predicted
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6Boston University2.07+4.37vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.76+0.41vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida1.37+5.06vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.30+0.30vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston2.80-2.50vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.33-1.67vs Predicted
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12Tulane University2.50-3.13vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.19-3.38vs Predicted
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14University of Miami2.27-4.83vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University2.54-6.79vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.90-4.86vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania2.09-6.65vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.47-5.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.62U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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8.1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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7.54Stanford University2.770.1%1st Place
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10.33Tufts University2.050.0%1st Place
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7.44George Washington University2.740.1%1st Place
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10.37Boston University2.070.1%1st Place
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7.41U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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13.06University of South Florida1.370.0%1st Place
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9.3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.300.0%1st Place
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7.5College of Charleston2.800.1%1st Place
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9.33Roger Williams University2.330.1%1st Place
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8.87Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
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9.62SUNY Maritime College2.190.1%1st Place
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9.17University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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8.21Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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11.14Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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10.35University of Pennsylvania2.090.0%1st Place
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12.64University of Wisconsin1.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Sawin | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Justin Lim | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| John Eastman | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% |
| Michael Ehnot | 8.3% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Micky Munns | 5.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.8% |
| Gavin McJones | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% |
| Humberto Porrata | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 13.6% | 24.1% |
| Taft Buckley | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.8% |
| Brandon Geller | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| John Walton | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% |
| Thad Lettsome | 6.5% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% |
| Nick Chisari | 5.1% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% |
| Diego Escobar | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.8% |
| Samuel Gavula | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.4% |
| Jacob Macdonald | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 17.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.