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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.54+7.38vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston2.80+5.28vs Predicted
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3Boston University2.07+7.40vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.76+3.18vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.90+5.77vs Predicted
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6Tulane University1.88+5.03vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+0.79vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.33+0.99vs Predicted
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9Stanford University2.77-1.93vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.19-0.07vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.05-0.60vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.09-1.51vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-2.86vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin1.47-1.69vs Predicted
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15University of Miami2.27-5.73vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida1.37-2.88vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland2.30-7.65vs Predicted
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18George Washington University2.74-10.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.38Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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7.28College of Charleston2.800.1%1st Place
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10.4Boston University2.070.0%1st Place
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7.18U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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10.77Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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11.03Tulane University1.880.0%1st Place
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7.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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8.99Roger Williams University2.330.1%1st Place
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7.07Stanford University2.770.1%1st Place
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9.93SUNY Maritime College2.190.1%1st Place
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10.4Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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10.49University of Pennsylvania2.090.0%1st Place
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10.14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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12.31University of Wisconsin1.470.0%1st Place
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9.27University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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13.12University of South Florida1.370.0%1st Place
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9.35St. Mary's College of Maryland2.300.1%1st Place
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7.12George Washington University2.740.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Escobar | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
| Brandon Geller | 6.8% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Micky Munns | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 3.9% |
| Gavin McJones | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.8% |
| William Keenan | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| John Walton | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% |
| Justin Lim | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Nick Chisari | 6.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.3% |
| John Eastman | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% |
| Samuel Gavula | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% |
| Lucas Sawin | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% |
| Jacob Macdonald | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 12.5% | 17.2% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% |
| Humberto Porrata | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 23.0% |
| Taft Buckley | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 2.4% |
| Michael Ehnot | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.