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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College1.95+6.66vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University1.60+6.83vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.55+2.11vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.37+2.32vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College1.18+5.32vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.10+2.88vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.62+1.67vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University1.84+1.07vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.73+0.54vs Predicted
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10Northwestern University1.49-0.26vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.06-0.48vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.00-0.81vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.63-4.72vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island1.42-3.89vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.26-4.28vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.07-3.82vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College2.34-11.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.66Boston College1.957.1%1st Place
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8.83Roger Williams University1.605.5%1st Place
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5.11Yale University2.5513.8%1st Place
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6.32Brown University2.3711.3%1st Place
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10.32Bowdoin College1.184.3%1st Place
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8.88Harvard University2.105.8%1st Place
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8.67Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.625.8%1st Place
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9.07Roger Williams University1.844.7%1st Place
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9.54U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.734.2%1st Place
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9.74Northwestern University1.494.3%1st Place
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10.52University of Vermont1.064.0%1st Place
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11.19Connecticut College1.002.9%1st Place
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8.28Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.636.6%1st Place
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10.11University of Rhode Island1.423.8%1st Place
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10.72Northeastern University1.262.4%1st Place
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12.18Boston University1.072.1%1st Place
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5.85Dartmouth College2.3411.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Jack Roman | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.9% |
| Emma Cowles | 13.8% | 14.2% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Blake Behrens | 11.3% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Ethan Danielson | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% |
| Cordelia Burn | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% |
| William Kulas | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% |
| Drew Mastovsky | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 3.3% |
| Luke Zylinski | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% |
| Shea Smith | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% |
| Ethan Burt | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 9.9% |
| William Hurd | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 13.9% |
| Lucy Brock | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.8% |
| Henry Lee | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% |
| Sam Monaghan | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 10.8% |
| Porter Bell | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 21.6% |
| Chase Decker | 11.5% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.