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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.55+4.24vs Predicted
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2Northwestern University1.49+7.57vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island1.42+6.95vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.34+1.71vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.37+1.36vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University1.84+3.09vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.10+1.94vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.26+2.51vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.00+2.36vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont1.06+0.53vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.63-2.69vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College1.18-1.59vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University1.60-4.10vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.62-5.56vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.73-5.40vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.07-3.75vs Predicted
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17Boston College1.95-9.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.24Yale University2.5514.3%1st Place
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9.57Northwestern University1.494.5%1st Place
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9.95University of Rhode Island1.424.5%1st Place
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5.71Dartmouth College2.3411.8%1st Place
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6.36Brown University2.3710.0%1st Place
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9.09Roger Williams University1.844.5%1st Place
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8.94Harvard University2.105.5%1st Place
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10.51Northeastern University1.263.8%1st Place
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11.36Connecticut College1.003.1%1st Place
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10.53University of Vermont1.063.7%1st Place
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8.31Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.636.2%1st Place
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10.41Bowdoin College1.183.8%1st Place
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8.9Roger Williams University1.605.5%1st Place
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8.44Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.626.0%1st Place
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9.6U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.734.0%1st Place
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12.25Boston University1.071.8%1st Place
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7.83Boston College1.957.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Cowles | 14.3% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Shea Smith | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% |
| Henry Lee | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.2% |
| Chase Decker | 11.8% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Blake Behrens | 10.0% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Drew Mastovsky | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.4% |
| Cordelia Burn | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 3.2% |
| Sam Monaghan | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.7% |
| William Hurd | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 13.9% |
| Ethan Burt | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 10.2% |
| Lucy Brock | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.3% |
| Ethan Danielson | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.5% |
| Jack Roman | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.4% |
| William Kulas | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% |
| Luke Zylinski | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% |
| Porter Bell | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 22.9% |
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.