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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College1.95+6.78vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University1.84+7.13vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.34+2.84vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.55+1.25vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College1.18+5.31vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.37+0.28vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University1.60+1.87vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.26+2.54vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.73+0.66vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont1.06+0.55vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.62-2.58vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University1.49-2.21vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.63-4.59vs Predicted
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14Harvard University2.10-5.29vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.07-2.72vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island1.42-6.01vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College1.00-5.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.78Boston College1.957.6%1st Place
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9.13Roger Williams University1.845.3%1st Place
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5.84Dartmouth College2.3412.8%1st Place
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5.25Yale University2.5514.1%1st Place
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10.31Bowdoin College1.184.0%1st Place
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6.28Brown University2.3710.3%1st Place
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8.87Roger Williams University1.606.3%1st Place
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10.54Northeastern University1.263.2%1st Place
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9.66U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.733.8%1st Place
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10.55University of Vermont1.063.5%1st Place
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8.42Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.626.0%1st Place
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9.79Northwestern University1.493.5%1st Place
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8.41Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.635.9%1st Place
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8.71Harvard University2.105.4%1st Place
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12.28Boston University1.072.0%1st Place
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9.99University of Rhode Island1.423.5%1st Place
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11.22Connecticut College1.002.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Drew Mastovsky | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.2% |
| Chase Decker | 12.8% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Emma Cowles | 14.1% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ethan Danielson | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% |
| Blake Behrens | 10.3% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Jack Roman | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% |
| Sam Monaghan | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 10.2% |
| Luke Zylinski | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% |
| Ethan Burt | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 9.0% |
| William Kulas | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| Shea Smith | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% |
| Lucy Brock | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Cordelia Burn | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| Porter Bell | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 23.1% |
| Henry Lee | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% |
| William Hurd | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 12.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.