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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.54+5.21vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94+2.90vs Predicted
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3University of South Florida1.91+2.09vs Predicted
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4University of Wisconsin0.86+4.53vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island0.45+4.89vs Predicted
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6Boston University1.44+0.62vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.77-1.58vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston1.17-0.47vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University0.67+0.11vs Predicted
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10University of Miami-0.62+2.76vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.57-4.78vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University1.20-4.38vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara1.10-5.04vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.08-3.01vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College-0.01-4.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.540.1%1st Place
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4.9Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.1%1st Place
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5.09University of South Florida1.910.1%1st Place
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8.53University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
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9.89University of Rhode Island0.450.0%1st Place
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6.62Boston University1.440.1%1st Place
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5.42Tufts University1.770.1%1st Place
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7.53College of Charleston1.170.1%1st Place
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9.11Northeastern University0.670.0%1st Place
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12.76University of Miami-0.620.0%1st Place
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6.22Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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7.62Roger Williams University1.200.1%1st Place
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7.96University of California at Santa Barbara1.100.1%1st Place
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10.99University of Vermont0.080.0%1st Place
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11.15SUNY Maritime College-0.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camille McGriff | 9.9% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% |
| Lucy Brock | 13.6% | 14.7% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Sydney Monahan | 13.1% | 13.1% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Mary Castellini | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 3.7% |
| Sadie Thomas | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 13.3% | 7.9% |
| Tiare Sierra | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Abbie Carlson | 12.8% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Fredrikke Foss | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Ashley Arruda | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 4.5% |
| Julianna Skoglund | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 9.7% | 18.1% | 43.6% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 9.3% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Michaela ODonnell | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Molly Coghlin | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 1.7% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 2.3% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 14.8% | 18.2% | 15.3% |
| Morgan Essex | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 18.2% | 18.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.