Race 3B

mass-maritime-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

54.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Miles Williams 27.0% 22.8% 20.1% 14.7% 9.3% 3.9% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Adrian Winkelman 28.0% 23.8% 16.0% 15.6% 8.4% 5.1% 2.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nolan Cooper 6.2% 8.1% 9.3% 9.6% 14.2% 16.1% 16.8% 13.4% 5.1% 1.1% 0.1%
Keller Morrison 5.8% 6.4% 10.5% 9.8% 14.5% 16.1% 17.7% 11.0% 5.9% 2.0% 0.3%
Kennard MacVaugh 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 2.2% 2.5% 3.5% 5.8% 11.4% 24.9% 27.4% 18.5%
Peter Taboada 10.4% 10.2% 13.8% 15.3% 16.1% 14.0% 10.7% 6.9% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Ariane Grossmann 0.3% 0.8% 0.6% 1.1% 1.7% 2.3% 2.4% 4.8% 13.6% 25.7% 46.7%
Olivia Lowthian 12.9% 15.1% 17.2% 15.8% 13.8% 12.2% 7.5% 4.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Kate Myler 2.5% 4.2% 2.8% 5.8% 6.0% 10.5% 11.9% 24.3% 19.8% 9.3% 2.9%
Jack Leahy 5.1% 7.3% 7.2% 9.2% 11.5% 14.3% 19.0% 16.0% 7.4% 2.8% 0.2%
Jack Sullivan 0.6% 0.1% 1.1% 0.9% 2.0% 2.0% 4.2% 6.8% 20.3% 30.8% 31.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.