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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.00+7.81vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.04+6.60vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.49+8.11vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.99+4.49vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.23+2.56vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+3.61vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.35+4.38vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.83+1.26vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.45+2.01vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+0.23vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.43-4.13vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.93-2.73vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara2.34-1.69vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-4.53vs Predicted
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15Tulane University2.70-5.16vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.63-5.78vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-8.24vs Predicted
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18Boston College2.81-8.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.81Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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8.6Brown University3.040.1%1st Place
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11.11U. S. Naval Academy2.490.0%1st Place
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8.49Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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7.56Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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9.61U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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11.38University of Pennsylvania2.350.0%1st Place
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9.26Tufts University2.830.1%1st Place
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11.01Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
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10.23Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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6.87Yale University3.430.1%1st Place
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9.27Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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11.31University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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9.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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9.84Tulane University2.700.0%1st Place
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10.22George Washington University2.630.0%1st Place
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8.76St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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9.22Boston College2.810.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Hoogland | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% |
| Jack Murphy | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| Gray Benson | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 9.0% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.7% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.3% |
| Javier Garcon | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 11.2% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.2% |
| CJ Mckenna | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.8% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Scott Mais | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% |
| Chris Kayda | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 13.1% |
| Charles Carraway | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% |
| Cameron Feves | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% |
| Robert Hunter | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.