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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.04+7.46vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.93+6.95vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.70+7.01vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.49+6.50vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+6.15vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.43+0.51vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.99+1.38vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.50+2.53vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+0.40vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+0.05vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.83-1.67vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College2.46-0.80vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.35-1.93vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University3.00-5.84vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-6.60vs Predicted
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16Boston College2.81-6.76vs Predicted
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17George Washington University2.63-6.83vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-8.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.46Brown University3.040.1%1st Place
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8.95Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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10.01Tulane University2.700.0%1st Place
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10.5U. S. Naval Academy2.490.0%1st Place
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11.15University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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6.51Yale University3.430.1%1st Place
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8.38Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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10.53Dartmouth College2.500.0%1st Place
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9.4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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10.05Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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9.33Tufts University2.830.1%1st Place
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11.2Connecticut College2.460.0%1st Place
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11.07University of Pennsylvania2.350.0%1st Place
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8.16Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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8.4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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9.24Boston College2.810.1%1st Place
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10.17George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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9.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Murphy | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.3% |
| Scott Mais | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% |
| Gray Benson | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 9.7% |
| Chris Kayda | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 13.2% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 10.1% | 11.9% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% |
| James Paul | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 6.5% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% |
| Walter Henry | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 11.4% |
| Javier Garcon | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 11.4% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 1.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.3% |
| Robert Hunter | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% |
| Cameron Feves | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% |
| Charles Carraway | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.