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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+7.80vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.23+5.76vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.70+6.99vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.00+4.38vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.74+4.59vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.35+5.31vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.43-0.33vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.99+0.45vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+0.90vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.49+0.98vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.93-2.01vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.95+1.19vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-3.63vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara2.34-2.94vs Predicted
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15Brown University3.04-6.78vs Predicted
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16Boston College2.81-6.60vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-7.13vs Predicted
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18Tufts University2.83-8.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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7.76Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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9.99Tulane University2.700.0%1st Place
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8.38Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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9.59George Washington University2.740.0%1st Place
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11.31University of Pennsylvania2.350.0%1st Place
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6.67Yale University3.430.1%1st Place
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8.45Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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9.9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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10.98U. S. Naval Academy2.490.0%1st Place
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8.99Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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13.19Connecticut College1.950.0%1st Place
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9.37U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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11.06University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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8.22Brown University3.040.1%1st Place
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9.4Boston College2.810.1%1st Place
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9.87Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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9.06Tufts University2.830.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 2.0% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% |
| Michael Ehnot | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.3% |
| Javier Garcon | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 11.8% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.1% |
| Gray Benson | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.2% |
| Scott Mais | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% |
| William Bedford | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 13.8% | 25.6% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% |
| Chris Kayda | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 11.0% |
| Jack Murphy | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Robert Hunter | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% |
| Charles Carraway | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.