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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+7.43vs Predicted
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2University of Michigan1.41+9.11vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.63+3.18vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston2.48+2.48vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University0.94+7.53vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.47+0.63vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.19+0.64vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin2.090.00vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.93-0.36vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.73-0.15vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.11+1.12vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College2.65-5.82vs Predicted
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13Boston University2.07-4.98vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.93-5.54vs Predicted
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15Hampton University0.81-1.90vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida0.52-1.81vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College1.12-4.87vs Predicted
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18University of Miami1.24-6.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.43U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
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11.11University of Michigan1.410.0%1st Place
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6.18Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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6.48College of Charleston2.480.1%1st Place
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12.53Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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6.63Harvard University2.470.1%1st Place
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7.64SUNY Maritime College2.190.1%1st Place
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8.0University of Wisconsin2.090.1%1st Place
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8.64Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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9.85University of Rhode Island1.730.0%1st Place
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12.12University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
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6.18Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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8.02Boston University2.070.1%1st Place
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8.46Old Dominion University1.930.1%1st Place
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13.1Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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14.19University of South Florida0.520.0%1st Place
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12.13Eckerd College1.120.0%1st Place
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11.3University of Miami1.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Sawin | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| Sherman Thompson | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.6% |
| Porter Kavle | 9.7% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Max Anker | 10.3% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Matthew King | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 13.5% |
| Cordelia Burn | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Nick Chisari | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| J.J. Smith | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Zachary Champney | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 2.6% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 10.9% |
| Christopher Lukens | 10.9% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Micky Munns | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 14.7% | 16.9% |
| Chloe Sweeting | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 15.1% | 28.6% |
| Griffin Richardson | 2.8% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 10.1% |
| Zachary Ward | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.