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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.93+8.06vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.65+4.19vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston2.48+3.84vs Predicted
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4University of Wisconsin2.09+4.12vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+3.38vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.73+3.72vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.19+0.81vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont1.11+4.04vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.63-2.94vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan1.41+1.21vs Predicted
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11Boston University2.07-2.54vs Predicted
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12University of Miami1.24+0.03vs Predicted
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13Eckerd College1.74-3.56vs Predicted
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14Harvard University2.47-7.49vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.93-6.14vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida0.52-1.71vs Predicted
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17Hampton University0.81-3.62vs Predicted
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18Jacksonville University0.94-5.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.06Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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6.19Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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6.84College of Charleston2.480.1%1st Place
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8.12University of Wisconsin2.090.1%1st Place
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8.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
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9.72University of Rhode Island1.730.0%1st Place
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7.81SUNY Maritime College2.190.1%1st Place
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12.04University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
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6.06Fordham University2.630.1%1st Place
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11.21University of Michigan1.410.0%1st Place
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8.46Boston University2.070.1%1st Place
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12.03University of Miami1.240.0%1st Place
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9.44Eckerd College1.740.1%1st Place
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6.51Harvard University2.470.1%1st Place
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8.86Old Dominion University1.930.1%1st Place
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14.29University of South Florida0.520.0%1st Place
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13.38Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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12.62Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Smith | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Christopher Lukens | 8.5% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Max Anker | 8.4% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
| Lucas Sawin | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Zachary Champney | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| Nick Chisari | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 3.2% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 9.7% |
| Porter Kavle | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sherman Thompson | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.7% |
| Micky Munns | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Zachary Ward | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 10.0% |
| Eden Nykamp | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.3% |
| Cordelia Burn | 10.6% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Chloe Sweeting | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 14.3% | 30.4% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.3% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 12.4% | 16.1% | 18.5% |
| Matthew King | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 12.9% | 12.6% | 12.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.