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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.48+5.80vs Predicted
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2University of Michigan1.41+9.16vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin2.09+5.38vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont1.35+7.01vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.65+1.01vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University0.94+6.74vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.93+1.75vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+0.27vs Predicted
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9University of Miami0.85+4.08vs Predicted
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10Eckerd College1.74-0.12vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.73-1.25vs Predicted
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12Harvard University2.47-5.01vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.93-4.33vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.50-7.70vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College2.19-7.31vs Predicted
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16Boston University2.07-7.76vs Predicted
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17Hampton University0.81-3.66vs Predicted
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18University of South Florida0.55-4.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.8College of Charleston2.480.1%1st Place
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11.16University of Michigan1.410.0%1st Place
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8.38University of Wisconsin2.090.1%1st Place
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11.01University of Vermont1.350.0%1st Place
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6.01Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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12.74Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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8.75Old Dominion University1.930.1%1st Place
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8.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
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13.08University of Miami0.850.0%1st Place
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9.88Eckerd College1.740.1%1st Place
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9.75University of Rhode Island1.730.0%1st Place
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6.99Harvard University2.470.1%1st Place
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8.67Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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6.3Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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7.69SUNY Maritime College2.190.1%1st Place
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8.24Boston University2.070.1%1st Place
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13.34Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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13.94University of South Florida0.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Anker | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sherman Thompson | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 4.6% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Nicholas Salvesen | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% |
| Christopher Lukens | 13.0% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Matthew King | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 15.8% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| Lucas Sawin | 6.1% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Ashley Delisser | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 12.2% | 14.6% | 16.3% |
| Eden Nykamp | 5.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.0% |
| Zachary Champney | 4.7% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.1% |
| Cordelia Burn | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 9.2% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nick Chisari | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Micky Munns | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 15.7% | 19.5% |
| Luke Justin | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 12.2% | 15.9% | 25.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.