← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Northeastern University1.68+2.54vs Predicted
-
2Northeastern University0.36+5.16vs Predicted
-
3Salve Regina University0.62+3.30vs Predicted
-
4Bowdoin College1.65-0.50vs Predicted
-
5University of Vermont0.83+0.56vs Predicted
-
6Maine Maritime Academy0.47+0.65vs Predicted
-
7University of New Hampshire0.39-0.15vs Predicted
-
8Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.24-0.74vs Predicted
-
9University of New Hampshire-0.56+0.98vs Predicted
-
10Bates College-0.59+0.29vs Predicted
-
11Williams College-2.24+3.87vs Predicted
-
12Maine Maritime Academy0.06-3.80vs Predicted
-
13Bates College-1.52-0.17vs Predicted
-
14Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.36-1.72vs Predicted
-
15University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.58-1.81vs Predicted
-
16Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.29-3.64vs Predicted
-
17Wentworth Institute of Technology-3.20-0.32vs Predicted
-
18Middlebury College-1.76-4.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.54Northeastern University1.680.2%1st Place
-
7.16Northeastern University0.360.0%1st Place
-
6.3Salve Regina University0.620.1%1st Place
-
3.5Bowdoin College1.650.2%1st Place
-
5.56University of Vermont0.830.1%1st Place
-
6.65Maine Maritime Academy0.470.1%1st Place
-
6.85University of New Hampshire0.390.1%1st Place
-
7.26Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.240.1%1st Place
-
9.98University of New Hampshire-0.560.0%1st Place
-
10.29Bates College-0.590.0%1st Place
-
14.87Williams College-2.240.0%1st Place
-
8.2Maine Maritime Academy0.060.0%1st Place
-
12.83Bates College-1.520.0%1st Place
-
12.28Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.360.0%1st Place
-
13.19University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.580.0%1st Place
-
12.36Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.290.0%1st Place
-
16.68Wentworth Institute of Technology-3.200.0%1st Place
-
13.49Middlebury College-1.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Monaghan | 20.9% | 20.6% | 15.0% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Denker | 4.3% | 4.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Emil Tullberg | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Stevens | 22.0% | 21.2% | 16.2% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 11.7% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Quinn Collins | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Sullivan | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andy Leshaw | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anne Berg | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Colby Green | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Ariane Grossmann | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 25.8% | 18.5% |
| Nathan Hyde | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Baker | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 13.7% | 14.3% | 11.8% | 3.4% |
| Kennard MacVaugh | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 2.2% |
| Cade Lanzafame | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 12.2% | 13.7% | 14.2% | 12.8% | 5.2% |
| Norman Walker | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 13.8% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 7.7% | 2.4% |
| Andrew Collins | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 8.5% | 13.9% | 61.1% |
| Evelyn Lane | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 14.9% | 15.3% | 15.1% | 6.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.