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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.13+6.05vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.31+4.45vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.07+4.44vs Predicted
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4Brown University1.73+4.75vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.55+0.70vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.24+1.04vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+1.67vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.11-3.84vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College0.77+3.18vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University1.74-1.44vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University2.36-4.44vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College0.17+1.69vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.06-1.82vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.90-5.75vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-5.86vs Predicted
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16University of Texas0.56-3.26vs Predicted
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17Olin College of Engineering-0.65-1.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.05Boston College2.130.1%1st Place
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6.45Yale University2.310.1%1st Place
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7.44Tufts University2.070.1%1st Place
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8.75Brown University1.730.1%1st Place
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5.7Dartmouth College2.550.1%1st Place
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7.04University of Rhode Island2.240.1%1st Place
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8.67Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.1%1st Place
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4.16Stanford University3.110.2%1st Place
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12.18Connecticut College0.770.0%1st Place
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8.56Salve Regina University1.740.0%1st Place
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6.56Northeastern University2.360.1%1st Place
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13.69Dartmouth College0.170.0%1st Place
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11.18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.060.0%1st Place
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8.25Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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9.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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12.74University of Texas0.560.0%1st Place
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15.45Olin College of Engineering-0.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Ness | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Megan Grimes | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Connor Sheridan | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 0.4% |
| Sarah Young | 11.8% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Declan Botwinick | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Julia Wyatt | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Hannah Freeman | 20.8% | 15.9% | 14.0% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hailey Pemberton | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 15.7% | 16.1% | 6.6% |
| Nils Tullberg | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Rob Mailley | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 12.2% | 27.0% | 19.7% |
| Aidan Brown | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 8.1% | 5.0% |
| Shea Smith | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Peter McGonagle | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| John Mason | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 13.5% | 16.2% | 17.5% | 9.8% |
| Alexander Miller | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 8.7% | 16.8% | 55.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.