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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.55+4.57vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.31+4.42vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.24+3.69vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.44+5.56vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University1.74+3.43vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.11-1.80vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+1.49vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.07-0.86vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.90-1.21vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College0.73+1.74vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.06-0.44vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.36-5.70vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.13-6.04vs Predicted
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14Brown University1.73-5.69vs Predicted
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15Olin College of Engineering-0.65-0.37vs Predicted
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16Dartmouth College0.17-2.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.57Dartmouth College2.550.1%1st Place
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6.42Yale University2.310.1%1st Place
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6.69University of Rhode Island2.240.1%1st Place
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9.56U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.440.0%1st Place
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8.43Salve Regina University1.740.0%1st Place
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4.2Stanford University3.110.2%1st Place
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8.49Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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7.14Tufts University2.070.1%1st Place
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7.79Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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11.74Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
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10.56U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.060.0%1st Place
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6.3Northeastern University2.360.1%1st Place
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6.96Boston College2.130.1%1st Place
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8.31Brown University1.730.0%1st Place
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14.63Olin College of Engineering-0.650.0%1st Place
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13.2Dartmouth College0.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Young | 11.6% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Megan Grimes | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Declan Botwinick | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Jack Derry | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 1.8% |
| Nils Tullberg | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 0.3% |
| Hannah Freeman | 18.4% | 16.9% | 13.6% | 13.5% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Wyatt | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Connor Sheridan | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Shea Smith | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.9% | 1.3% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 13.1% | 17.4% | 19.3% | 8.3% |
| Aidan Brown | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 14.7% | 12.4% | 3.6% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 9.5% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Graham Ness | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Alexander Miller | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 7.4% | 15.5% | 61.4% |
| Rob Mailley | 0.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 15.3% | 28.5% | 22.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.