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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.82+4.44vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California2.97+0.74vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+4.78vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.95+0.93vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University1.54+1.21vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.30+0.82vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego1.45-0.70vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.63-2.00vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-0.10+2.76vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.73-1.13vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-1.05+4.48vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles0.09-0.89vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.64+0.95vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.30+1.99vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.74+2.87vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley-0.24-3.70vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-1.95+1.34vs Predicted
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18University of California at Davis-1.76-0.12vs Predicted
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19California State University Channel Islands-1.81-1.44vs Predicted
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20University of California at Santa Cruz-1.34-3.71vs Predicted
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21California State University Channel Islands-1.45-4.38vs Predicted
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22California State University Monterey Bay-0.62-8.16vs Predicted
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23Arizona State University-3.64-1.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.44University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.1%1st Place
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2.74University of Southern California2.970.3%1st Place
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7.78Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.0%1st Place
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4.93University of California at Santa Barbara1.950.1%1st Place
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6.21San Diego State University1.540.1%1st Place
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6.82University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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6.3University of California at San Diego1.450.1%1st Place
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6.0University of California at Santa Barbara1.630.1%1st Place
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11.76University of California at San Diego-0.100.0%1st Place
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8.87University of California at Berkeley0.730.0%1st Place
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15.48University of California at Santa Cruz-1.050.0%1st Place
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11.11University of California at Los Angeles0.090.0%1st Place
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13.95University of California at San Diego-0.640.0%1st Place
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15.99Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.300.0%1st Place
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17.87Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.740.0%1st Place
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12.3University of California at Berkeley-0.240.0%1st Place
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18.34University of California at Los Angeles-1.950.0%1st Place
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17.88University of California at Davis-1.760.0%1st Place
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17.56California State University Channel Islands-1.810.0%1st Place
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16.29University of California at Santa Cruz-1.340.0%1st Place
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16.62California State University Channel Islands-1.450.0%1st Place
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13.84California State University Monterey Bay-0.620.0%1st Place
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21.91Arizona State University-3.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kraak | 9.2% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Hou | 32.6% | 21.7% | 16.8% | 12.5% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kai Ponting | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jake Zieba | 11.5% | 12.5% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Buckner | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Dorn | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Schuyler Capita | 9.5% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Bastuba | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Kingsley Ehrich | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tristan Bellevin | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 0.5% |
| Ian Marshall | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Brooks | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Jack Kelly | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 1.2% |
| Jeffrey Romeo | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 13.6% | 6.2% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Deven Douglas | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 13.0% | 18.2% | 7.8% |
| Grace Chitouras | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 14.0% | 15.1% | 4.4% |
| Olivia Feito | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 15.6% | 5.0% |
| Savannah Hallgarth | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 5.5% | 1.7% |
| Kaylena Mann | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 2.3% |
| Caila Devlin | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Harding | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 11.4% | 70.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.