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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+3.14vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+1.16vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.19+1.77vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego0.50+2.81vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+2.21vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California-0.10+3.06vs Predicted
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7San Diego State University-0.29+2.70vs Predicted
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8California State University Monterey Bay-0.52+3.01vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-1.03+3.94vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz-0.46+0.62vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles0.29-3.15vs Predicted
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12California State University Channel Islands-2.97+7.70vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-0.61-1.68vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.03-1.31vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-1.46-0.01vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley-1.03-3.05vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57-1.72vs Predicted
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18California State University Channel Islands-2.64+1.03vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.26-5.26vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-2.41-1.86vs Predicted
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21University of California at Santa Cruz-1.80-4.92vs Predicted
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22University of California at Berkeley-1.11-8.48vs Predicted
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23Arizona State University-3.64-1.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.14University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.2%1st Place
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3.16University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.3%1st Place
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4.77University of California at Santa Barbara1.190.1%1st Place
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6.81University of California at San Diego0.500.1%1st Place
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7.21Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.1%1st Place
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9.06University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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9.7San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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11.01California State University Monterey Bay-0.520.0%1st Place
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12.94University of California at Davis-1.030.0%1st Place
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10.62University of California at Santa Cruz-0.460.0%1st Place
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7.85University of California at Los Angeles0.290.0%1st Place
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19.7California State University Channel Islands-2.970.0%1st Place
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11.32University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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12.69University of California at San Diego-1.030.0%1st Place
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14.99University of California at Los Angeles-1.460.0%1st Place
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12.95University of California at Berkeley-1.030.0%1st Place
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15.28Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.570.0%1st Place
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19.03California State University Channel Islands-2.640.0%1st Place
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13.74Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.260.0%1st Place
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18.14University of California at San Diego-2.410.0%1st Place
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16.08University of California at Santa Cruz-1.800.0%1st Place
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13.52University of California at Berkeley-1.110.0%1st Place
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21.27Arizona State University-3.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 16.4% | 16.3% | 15.8% | 13.3% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Alexander | 25.2% | 20.4% | 16.7% | 15.3% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Reid | 14.2% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 13.8% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 6.9% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Gignac | 3.7% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Patrick | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Puts | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Jack Zemke | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Jane Howland | 4.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Schmitz | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 10.4% | 13.9% | 25.9% | 20.6% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| McKenna Roonan | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Xinyu Zhou | 0.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| James Guiraud | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Chris Haugen | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 12.8% | 19.4% | 18.6% | 14.1% |
| Macy Rowe | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Jessica Dally | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 15.2% | 16.5% | 8.5% |
| Althea White | 0.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% |
| Sophia Zaleski | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Ciara Harding | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 10.0% | 18.5% | 51.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.