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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
24
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+2.23vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles0.29+5.96vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.19+1.86vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+0.33vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+2.36vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles-0.61+5.87vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.50+0.17vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.26+6.73vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California-0.10+0.28vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University-0.29+0.32vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay-0.52+0.51vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-1.03+1.57vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-0.63-0.99vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley-1.03-0.52vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Cruz-0.46-3.82vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-1.03-2.36vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57-1.12vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-1.46-2.42vs Predicted
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19University of California at Berkeley-1.11-5.33vs Predicted
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20University of California at Santa Cruz-1.80-3.39vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-2.41-1.80vs Predicted
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22California State University Channel Islands-2.64-2.20vs Predicted
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23California State University Channel Islands-2.97-2.45vs Predicted
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24Arizona State University-3.64-1.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.23University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.3%1st Place
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7.96University of California at Los Angeles0.290.0%1st Place
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4.86University of California at Santa Barbara1.190.1%1st Place
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4.33University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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7.36Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.1%1st Place
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11.87University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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7.17University of California at San Diego0.500.1%1st Place
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14.73Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.260.0%1st Place
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9.28University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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10.32San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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11.51California State University Monterey Bay-0.520.0%1st Place
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13.57University of California at Davis-1.030.0%1st Place
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12.01University of California at Irvine-0.630.0%1st Place
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13.48University of California at Berkeley-1.030.0%1st Place
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11.18University of California at Santa Cruz-0.460.0%1st Place
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13.64University of California at San Diego-1.030.0%1st Place
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15.88Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.570.0%1st Place
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15.58University of California at Los Angeles-1.460.0%1st Place
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13.67University of California at Berkeley-1.110.0%1st Place
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16.61University of California at Santa Cruz-1.800.0%1st Place
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19.2University of California at San Diego-2.410.0%1st Place
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19.8California State University Channel Islands-2.640.0%1st Place
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20.55California State University Channel Islands-2.970.0%1st Place
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22.21Arizona State University-3.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Alexander | 26.7% | 20.2% | 15.8% | 13.7% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Jane Howland | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Reid | 12.9% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 15.0% | 16.0% | 13.6% | 14.7% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Noah Barton | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Macy Rowe | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Edward Ansart | 2.8% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Gignac | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Patrick | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Puts | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Anthony Drabeck | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| James Guiraud | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Jack Zemke | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| McKenna Roonan | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Chris Haugen | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 1.5% |
| Xinyu Zhou | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| Sophia Zaleski | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Althea White | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 1.8% |
| Jessica Dally | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 15.2% | 17.1% | 7.4% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 17.9% | 19.1% | 12.5% |
| Michael Schmitz | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 22.8% | 23.1% |
| Ciara Harding | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 5.7% | 10.0% | 20.0% | 50.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.