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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+3.12vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego-1.03+11.16vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.19+1.78vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.85-0.87vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California-0.10+4.19vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.50+0.76vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-0.01vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles0.29-0.26vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.46+1.59vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University-0.29-0.06vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-1.80+5.58vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.26+2.13vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay-0.52-1.98vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley-1.11-0.81vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57+0.60vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley-1.03-2.85vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-0.61-5.57vs Predicted
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18University of California at Davis-1.03-4.64vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-2.41-0.83vs Predicted
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20California State University Channel Islands-2.64-0.93vs Predicted
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21University of California at Los Angeles-1.46-6.12vs Predicted
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22California State University Channel Islands-2.97-1.96vs Predicted
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23Arizona State University-2.53-4.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.12University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.2%1st Place
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13.16University of California at San Diego-1.030.0%1st Place
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4.78University of California at Santa Barbara1.190.1%1st Place
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3.13University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.3%1st Place
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9.19University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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6.76University of California at San Diego0.500.1%1st Place
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6.99Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.1%1st Place
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7.74University of California at Los Angeles0.290.1%1st Place
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10.59University of California at Santa Cruz-0.460.0%1st Place
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9.94San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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16.58University of California at Santa Cruz-1.800.0%1st Place
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14.13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.260.0%1st Place
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11.02California State University Monterey Bay-0.520.0%1st Place
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13.19University of California at Berkeley-1.110.0%1st Place
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15.6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.570.0%1st Place
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13.15University of California at Berkeley-1.030.0%1st Place
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11.43University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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13.36University of California at Davis-1.030.0%1st Place
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18.17University of California at San Diego-2.410.0%1st Place
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19.07California State University Channel Islands-2.640.0%1st Place
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14.88University of California at Los Angeles-1.460.0%1st Place
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20.04California State University Channel Islands-2.970.0%1st Place
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18.95Arizona State University-2.530.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 16.3% | 16.8% | 15.1% | 14.2% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| McKenna Roonan | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Jasper Reid | 13.3% | 14.3% | 11.8% | 13.5% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Alexander | 25.9% | 21.7% | 17.4% | 13.8% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 7.5% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Jane Howland | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Zemke | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Casey Gignac | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Althea White | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 4.5% |
| Macy Rowe | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Liam Patrick | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Zaleski | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Chris Haugen | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 2.1% |
| James Guiraud | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Sarah Puts | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Jessica Dally | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 16.7% | 13.7% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 18.7% | 20.7% |
| Xinyu Zhou | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 0.7% |
| Michael Schmitz | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 11.3% | 16.9% | 37.6% |
| Katherine Pearson | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 14.6% | 16.0% | 18.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.