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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+2.20vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+5.25vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+1.13vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.19+0.63vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego0.50+1.84vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.29+1.42vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California-0.10+1.91vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-0.61+3.35vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay-0.52+1.78vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-1.03+2.89vs Predicted
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11San Diego State University-0.29-0.86vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-1.11+1.28vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz-0.46-2.40vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz-1.80+1.91vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-1.03-1.81vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57-0.75vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-2.41+1.47vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-1.46-2.98vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-1.60-3.91vs Predicted
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20Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.26-6.14vs Predicted
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21Arizona State University-2.53-2.29vs Predicted
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22California State University Channel Islands-2.64-2.90vs Predicted
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23California State University Channel Islands-2.97-3.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.2University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.3%1st Place
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7.25Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.1%1st Place
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4.13University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.2%1st Place
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4.63University of California at Santa Barbara1.190.1%1st Place
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6.84University of California at San Diego0.500.1%1st Place
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7.42University of California at Los Angeles0.290.1%1st Place
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8.91University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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11.35University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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10.78California State University Monterey Bay-0.520.0%1st Place
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12.89University of California at Berkeley-1.030.0%1st Place
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10.14San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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13.28University of California at Berkeley-1.110.0%1st Place
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10.6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.460.0%1st Place
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15.91University of California at Santa Cruz-1.800.0%1st Place
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13.19University of California at Davis-1.030.0%1st Place
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15.25Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.570.0%1st Place
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18.47University of California at San Diego-2.410.0%1st Place
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15.02University of California at Los Angeles-1.460.0%1st Place
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15.09University of California at San Diego-1.600.0%1st Place
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13.86Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.260.0%1st Place
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18.71Arizona State University-2.530.0%1st Place
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19.1California State University Channel Islands-2.640.0%1st Place
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19.99California State University Channel Islands-2.970.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Alexander | 25.8% | 21.2% | 17.4% | 11.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 17.2% | 15.9% | 14.7% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Reid | 12.7% | 14.3% | 12.3% | 16.5% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 6.5% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Jane Howland | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Liam Patrick | 2.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| James Guiraud | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Casey Gignac | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Zaleski | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Jack Zemke | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Althea White | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 3.1% |
| Sarah Puts | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Chris Haugen | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 2.4% |
| Jessica Dally | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 17.4% | 14.6% |
| Xinyu Zhou | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| Megan Saenz | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 2.5% |
| Macy Rowe | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Katherine Pearson | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 13.9% | 17.3% | 16.6% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 17.9% | 24.4% |
| Michael Schmitz | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 12.1% | 17.2% | 33.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.